Staying Calm Before the Storm
Preparedness is the Best Protection

“There is a fifty-percent chance that a major hurricane will hit the U.S. East Coast, including Florida, this year, compared to a thirty-one-percent average for the last century,” says Dr. William Gray, professor of atmospheric science at Colorado State University. “From the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville, Texas, the probability of a major hurricane hitting land is forty-nine percent.”
With a forecast for 17 named storms, perhaps the good news is that the 12- to 72-hour track forecasts for 2006 were the best on record for the National Hurricane Center.
“The forecast track has greatly improved in accuracy over the past five years,” says Tim Osborn, director of regional operations of the Eastern Gulf for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association. “But predictions for the intensity of the storm and the timing are a little less accurate.”
Each year millions of coastal residents are glued to the tube, following the forecast track of any active hurricane. However, myopically focusing on that black line clouds perception. “Katrina landed on the Louisiana-Mississippi border, but impacted boats as far away as Bayou La Batre in Alabama,” Osborn says.
“Forecasting is not an exact science, it’s a best guess,” says David Williams, an insurance agent with World Marine Underwriters. “Get 100 miles away from where it’s aiming and then double that distance. Wilma’s path covered three counties, fifty miles in every direction from its center.”...

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